In 2012, Romney lost Florida by only 74,309 votes. Obama received 50% of the 8.4 million votes cast in Florida for the 2012 Presidential Election, defeating Romney by only 0.9 points.
What counties could have swung Florida’s 29 electoral votes towards Romney?
KEY COUNTY: MIAMI-DADE
In 2012, Miami-Dade County accounted for 10.4% of the total statewide vote in the Presidential Election, making it the single largest county in the state. Obama won Miami-Dade by 24 points (62% to 38%) in 2012. Had Romney performed the same in Miami-Dade as President Bush in 2004 and reduced his margin of loss down to 7 points, he would have gained 75,000 more votes and won the election in Florida.
Hispanics make up 54% of all registered voters in Miami-Dade. In fact, the Hispanic registered voters in Miami-Dade County alone account for 6% of the entire statewide voting population. Overall, Hispanics make up 14% of Florida’s Registered Voters.
Historically, Republican candidates who have won statewide office have lost Miami-Dade County by an average of 9 points. In 2010, Senator Marco Rubio was the first Republican to win this county since Senator Mel Martinez won Miami-Dade by 0.2 points (or 1,385 votes) in 2004.
- In 2012, President Obama won Miami-Dade County by 24 points.
- In 2012, Democratic Senator Bill Nelson won Miami-Dade County by 28 points.
- In 2010, Republican Senator Marco Rubio won Miami-Dade County by 20 points.
- In 2010, Republican Governor Rick Scott lost Miami-Dade County to Democrat Alex Sink by 14 points, but still won the state by 1.2 points overall
- In 2008, President Obama won Miami-Dade County by 16 points.
HISPANIC MEDIA IN FLORIDA
- According to CNN Exit Polls, 60% of Hispanics in Florida voted for Obama in 2012. Obama received 61% of the vote from Hispanic women and 58% of the vote from Hispanic men.
- It is worth noting the timing and the different Hispanic media strategies employed by Team Obama and Team Romney. Obama went up early April 2012 and never came down. Romney went up in July 2012 and never came down.
- Both campaigns spent almost the same amount of money, however, according to public file analysis, Obama ran more the twice the amount of frequency when compared to Romney: Obama spent $1.5 million and aired 13,000 spots on Hispanic media in Miami alone. Romney spent $1.3 million and aired 7,500 spots on Hispanic media in Miami alone.
- Obama spent a grand total of $5 million in Florida on Hispanic media. Romney spent a grand total of $3.4 million in Florida on Hispanic media.
- Obama uploaded at least 13 different Hispanic ads to his YouTube page during the election. Romney uploaded at least 8 different Hispanic ads to his YouTube page during the election.
NARROW-THE-GAP COUNTIES
Instead of gaining 75,000 more votes in Miami-Dade County alone, we looked at three other counties in which Romney could have improved his margins in order to win Florida:
- Miami-Dade County (10.4% of statewide vote, Miami market): Romney loses Miami-Dade County by 24 points. Had he reduced his margin of loss down to 15 points, he would have gained 40,000 more votes. In 2010, Governor Rick Scott lost Miami-Dade County by 14 points and won the election. In 2008, McCain lost Miami-Dade County by 16 points.
- Broward County (8.9% of statewide vote, Miami market): Romney loses Broward County by 35 points. Had he reduced his loss to 32 points, he would have gained 10,000 more votes. In 2010, Governor Rick Scott lost Broward County by 31 points.
- Hillsborough County (6.4% of statewide vote, Tampa Market): Romney loses Hillsborough County by 7 points. Had he reduced his margin of loss to 3 points, he would have gained 10,000 more votes. In 2010, Governor Rick Scott lost Hillsborough County by 3 points.
- Orange County (5.5% of statewide vote, Orlando Market): Romney loses Orange County by 18 points. Had he reduced his loss to 12 points, he would have gained 15,000 more votes. In 2010, Governor Rick Scott lost Orange County by 11 points.
Had Romney improved his vote percentage by 5 points on average in the 4 counties listed above, he would have gained 75,000 more votes and won the election in Florida.
